Tuesday, May 03, 2005

House of cards

Just how stable is modern society? Is my chosen profession recession proof? Would it be considered disaster proof? While the skills of many people are valued in today’s post-modern society what good would the rest of us be in a society transformed by war or calamity? I can’t ride a horse, build a house, hunt for wild game, or succeed at hand-to-hand combat. If I was transported back in time to frontier days I’d probably starve. My survival skills even in Boy Scouts circa 1968 were not much more than an hours drive in the station wagon, aluminum foil wrapped suppers and tent camping.

Was Chicken Little right? What if you predicted collapse and no one listened? The inhabitable part of Earth is only a couple of miles thick and 10,000 miles in diameter- like a coat of paint on a basketball. Perhaps Mother Nature has provided an ecological steady state that will be unperturbed by acid rain, ozone depletion, or any of a number of other threats- at least until the next big asteroid.

60 Minutes did a story on the Housing bubble in California. Seems like those in a position to benefit (read, profit) from rosy predictions see nothing but blue skies and unlimited potential for permanent growth. Reminds me of the big Stock market swoon in slow motion which began in 2000. Recall “DOW 36,000!!! ?” Ouch. It did leave a mark, a wound which may not heal for years. That may not be the worst of it. How many other Achilles Heels are out there?

Energy supplies are finite, logistically fragile, and not controlled by our best friends. A modern plague could stymie commerce as well as overwhelm healthcare. Two of my favorite books read in the 60’s were On the Beach, and Alas, Babylon. Both were of the post-nuclear Armageddon genre in which society crumbles and everyday people are confronted with unimaginable challenges. Dollars would be no more than compost. What would the best exchange commodity be? cans of spam? shotgun shells? bottled water? Even my physical labor would be suspect. I could be a professional... worrier. -James www.flight-of-ideas.com

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